9/9/03  17Z

Isabel a CAT4 storm, TD14 struggles to organize...

Both Fabian and Henri have become extratropical and no longer have
advisories being written for them.

Isabel continues to get better organized and became a CAT 4 hurricane
today at 03Z.  She already has accumulated 1.25 Intense Hurricane Days
and isn't even to 50W yet.  As of 15Z, she was located at 19.6N 46.9W
and tracking WNW at 12kts.  Maximum sustained winds are up to 115kts and
the MSLP is down to 948mb. The outflow pattern remains very symmetric,
and the eye, although clouded over a bit this morning, is clearing and
small.

She's expected to strengthen even further, just shy of CAT5 status, and
keep a general west track, ending up a bit north of the Leeward Islands
during the weekend.  Although way too far out to say with any certainty,
a U.S. landfall is not out of the question and people living along the
coasts should keep an eye on Isabel in the coming 7-10 days.

TD14 is still near the Cape Verde Islands, but is poorly organized. 
Intensity estimates as of 15Z were 30kts and 1007mb.  Conditions appear
favorable for development, so it could become TS Juan today or tomorrow.

You'll find the latest track forecast and satellite imagery of Isabel
and TD14 at http://www.mcwar.org/gallery/tropics/tropics.html

Brian

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Brian D. McNoldy            Research Associate          
Dept. of Atmospheric Sci.   Phone: (970) 491-8633
Colorado State University   Fax:   (970) 491-8449
Ft. Collins, CO 80523-1371  E-mail: mcnoldy@atmos.colostate.edu

        http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/
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