8/1/03  17Z

Disturbance slow to get going...

Same system I've been talking about for the past couple days, but it's
in moderate easterly shear, and more importantly [it seems] is that it's
in a stable, dry air mass.  This has choked off convection and inhibited
new convection from firing.  However the circulation is still intact and
awaiting more favorable conditions, which should be just a day away.

Presently at about 11N 42W and tracking W at 15kts, the MSLP is stil
1010mb.  The computer models paint a grim future for this system... very
hard to find a solution that intensifies the storm.

Latest satellite imagery available at
http://www.mcwar.org/gallery/tropics/tropics.html

Brian

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Brian D. McNoldy            Research Associate          
Dept. of Atmospheric Sci.   Phone: (970) 491-8633
Colorado State University   Fax:   (970) 491-8449
Ft. Collins, CO 80523-1371  E-mail: mcnoldy@atmos.colostate.edu

        http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/
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