"... On that day all the fountains of the great deep burst forth and the floodgates of heaven were opened." --- Genesis 7:11 Floyd very close to landfall, already causing devastating floods in several states. Gert becomes fourth CAT4 hurricane of the season. FLOYD: Hurricane Floyd is just hours away from making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The storm already has heavy rain spread from South Carolina to Canada, and all of the states I've been mentioning for the past few days still need to be prepared for extreme weather conditions. At 05Z on 9/16, the NWS has issued a managerie of tornado watches/warnings, tropical storm watches/warnings, hurricane watches/warnings, high wind watches/warnings, flood watches/warnings, flash flood watches/warnings for 16 states along the eastern seaboard. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, this storm is BIG, and it means business. The states affected by the watches and warnings right now are FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, VT, NH, and MA. Earlier in the day, a buoy off the coast of Daytona Beach recorded 55' waves (yes, that's fifty-five feet), and a buoy offshore of Charleston reported 36' waves. Allan Detrich was in Daytona Beach during some of the rough weather and took the "pier.jpg" image that I have a link to further down in the message. Waves right along the coast were not 55', but still substantial. Rainfall will be the biggest headache with this storm. Places like Myrtle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC can expect nearly three feet of rain before the storm exits, and places as far north as southeast Pennsylvania can expect up to twelve inches. Landfall is very close to happening, and it looks like it will occur just to the NE of Wilmington, NC just before daybreak on Thursday (0400 EST?). A historical note that frustrates me to no end: on 9/9, I said landfall would occur in one week (9/16). Well that's been wonderful and is holding true. Then on 9/10, I said landfall would be in Wilmington, NC. Sounds good? Well, I was later persuaded to move my landfall forecast to Savannah then to Charleston, and now, back to Wilmington! Lesson learned: NEVER DOUBT INSTINCTS !! As of 03Z on 9/16, Floyd was located at 32.9N 78.3W and moving NNE at 18mph. Maximum sustained winds have fallen to 115mph (with gusts to 140mph) and the MSLP is now 951mb. This makes it a weak CAT3 hurricane. The eye diameter is 46 miles... hurricane-force winds extend about 81 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend 210 miles from the center. As would be expected, the storm is becoming weaker and less organized as it moves inland and encounters frictional drag and no fuel source. This storm is still extremely dangerous and deserves the respect of everyone in its path. Respect for any storm is the first step toward safety. Stay alert for changing weather conditions and be prepared to take shelter from flooding, high winds, or severe thunderstorms. Some links you may find interesting.... An enhanced satellite view of Floyd when he was at peak intensity. (you can see Cuba and Jamaica very clearly) http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/floyd_ch214_990913_1745Z.gif Allan's photo of a pier in Daytona Beach. http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/pier.jpg A nice little composite of Floyd photos... so far. http://wire.ap.org/APpackages/hurricane_floyd_pix/photoframes.html GERT: Gert is still slowly intensifying, and became the fourth CAT4 hurricane this season at 15Z on 9/15. At 03Z, Gert was located at 17.9N 51.2W and had max sustained winds of 150mph. The pressure was 933mb, and the storm is moving W at 10mph. The SST's are 28.5C and the vertical shear is about 5 m/s from the west. As mentioned yesterday, this westward track should gradually become more WNW then NW. Recurvature is the most likely solution... possibly hitting or at least influencing Bermuda by next Wednesday. However, the storm should weaken slightly as it heads to the NW due to increasing vertical shear. Honestly, that's about all I have to say about that... I haven't spent too much time today looking at Gert, but the convection is well-organized and the outflow is symmetric. Brian ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Brian D. McNoldy Colorado State University Dept. of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371 Phone: (970) 491-8398 Fax: (970) 491-8449 E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Don't drink and derive."