Oh geez, this a gonna leave a mark. Floyd strengthens to a powerful and extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane... still likely to make landfall on US east coast. Gert almost at hurricane strength. FLOYD: Hurricane Floyd became the third CAT4 hurricane of the season at 00Z on the 13th. This storm is visually very impressive; he's well-organized, in a no-shear zone, and over very warm waters. I still think he will reach CAT5 status at some point. Seemingly, some models (and even the NHC) are finally starting to believe me! The chances of Floyd making US landfall increase with each passing hour of westward movement. It's still possible that he could get recurved, but that possibility is becoming remote. Due to man's desire to live by the sea, anywhere Floyd hits will result in massive property loss, and loss of life as well if residents don't heed the coming evacuation orders. The price of paradise. At 03Z on 9/13, Floyd was located at 23.6N 69.3W and moving due west at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 145mph and the MSLP has fallen to 931mb. For comparison, 24 hours ago the winds were 110mph and the pressure was 967mb. Vertical wind shear through the system is negligable, and the SST's are 29.7C. This storm intensified very quickly, and further intensification is not out of the question. A hurricane reaches CAT5 at 155mph. If Floyd reaches this mark, it will be the first CAT5 of the season. As I mentioned earlier, Floyd is well-organized now. There is nearly symmetric deep convection surrounding the 35-mile-diameter eye, and outflow still looks healthy. The circulation associated with this storm is immense... over 1350 miles in diameter. Landfall... a major topic in the news now. The latest model runs indicate landfall to occur near Savannah, GA on Wednesday night as a CAT4. For a change, I think I might have to agree with the models (write this one down!). Though I'm tempted to stick with my original forecast of Wilmington, NC, the trough just isn't moving fast enough to get Floyd that far north in time. THIS COULD CHANGE. Almost everywhere along the east coast is heavily populated (unlike the south TX coast where Bret hit as a CAT4), so accurate evacations are critical and must be made in ample time. I'm sure preparations are being made from Florida to North Carolina right now. However, the NE coast is not safe either. The trough which is causing the northen turn will drag Floyd along the eastern seaboard possibly all the way to Nova Scotia. Anyone in FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, PA, NY, CT, VT, and ME should be prepared for some very adverse weather within the next week (much worse than what Dennis brought last week). If anyone reading this has friends or family along the east coast who might not be aware of the coming threat, please let them know to at least be alert and monitor the situation. You and I are aware of the potential danger... share this knowledge, for knowledge is power. GERT: TS Gert is still heading rapidly toward the west and is very close to becoming the fifth hurricane of the season. At 03Z on 9/13, the storm was located at 15.1N 36.3W... max winds of 70mph... min pressure of 994mb... heading west at 19mph. Gert is expected to reach CAT2 by Wednesday night and still staying far enough south to avoid early recurvature. This sytem must also be monitored very closely, storms with this track are occassionally US landfallers as well; or at the least, hit the Lesser Antilles. Gert is in a moderate vertical shear region, and is over 27C waters (and getting warmer as she heads westward). Gert is not an immediate concern to anyone, so I think that's all I'll say about her. Brian More frequent updates regarding Floyd may be necessary in the near future, so you may be receiving more than just this daily mailing for the next few days. If you get sick of it, just ask to be removed from the mailing list! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Brian D. McNoldy Colorado State University Dept. of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371 Phone: (970) 491-8398 Fax: (970) 491-8449 E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Don't drink and derive."