One lump, or two? Floyd still intensifying, and US landfall looks more likely by the hour. TD9 forms near the Cape Verde Islands. FLOYD: Hurricane Floyd achieved CAT2 status early this morning (9/11) and has gradually gained strength. An interaction with a trough temporarily hindered development and actually disrupted the convective organization he had. Once the trough passes, Floyd should have no trouble intensifying more rapidly. At 03Z on 9/12, Floyd was located at 22.7N 64.5W and moving WNW at 12mph. Max winds were 110mph and the MSLP was 967mb. Notice that the track is now WNW compared to the NW track he's had for a while. This signifies the turn towards the US east coast. He is VERY close to becoming a CAT3, and I still think he has the potential of reaching CAT5 at some point. This storm is very large and will not be easily influenced by 'nearby' adverse conditions. The environmental conditions near Floyd (besides the trough) are 29.5C SST's and low vertical wind shear. A powerful trough moving across the US is the big question mark in Floyd's future track. If the trough slows down enough, landfall could be in central Florida as early as Tuesday. The more likely scenario is that the trough pulls Floyd to the north (just before Florida landfall) into the North Carolina coast. Another scenario is that the trough pulls Floyd far enough east and north that he could make landfall in the NJ - ME region. I will hold my forecast for landfall near Wilmington,NC (maybe Cape Hatteras?) as a CAT4 on Wednesday night. Again, be alert for changes to this forecast. Whatever the scenario turns out to be, I think everyone along the entire eastern seaboard will feel the effects of this huge storm. States from Florida to Maine can expect coastal flooding and erosion during the coming week. Even sites further inland might experience very heavy rains and thunderstorms as the feeder bands brush past. I'm not a psychic, this is just the way I see things happening by next weekend. TD9: The first advisory on newly-formed Tropical Depression 9 was issued by the NHC at 15Z on the 11th. This was the wave I've been mentioning near the Cape Verde Islands. The storm is currently in high shear, but it's very close to becoming a Tropical Storm, and when it does, it will be TS Gert. At 03Z on 9/11, the center of poorly-organized TD9 was located at 13.1N 28.5W... max sustained winds were at 35mph and the MSLP was 1004mb. The storm is moving W at 18mph. This westward motion is expected to continue, with a gradual turn to the WNW. It's expericencing 20 m/s SW vertical shear and is sitting over 27.3 SST's. Once it leaves the strong shear region, intensification is very likely. TD9 should reach hurricane status by Monday afternoon. It's official forecast track may look threatening to the US (by climatological standards), but I think Gert will be a recurver. Well, more on the forecast track once it's named! Brian ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Brian D. McNoldy Colorado State University Dept. of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371 Phone: (970) 491-8398 Fax: (970) 491-8449 E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Don't drink and derive."