It's the peak of the season, do you know where your cyclones are?

September 10th is the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Floyd strengthening, taking aim on US coast.  Several other disturbances look very 
interesting.


FLOYD:
Floyd has continued to organize and intensify and this trend should continue.  The SST's 
under Floyd are 29.3C and getting warmer and he heads NW (or WNW or W).  The vertical 
shear is 15 m/s from the west, but this doesn't seem to be having a great effect on him.  
Floyd's circulation is now about 1200 miles in diameter... a BIG storm (distance between 
NYC and Miami).  The outflow is adequately symmetric, and an eye structure has re-emerged 
recently in the IR imagery.  Earlier in the day a hint of an eye could be seen in both VIS 
and IR, then a vigorous convective blowup occurred over the center of rotation and hid 
the eye from the satellite's view.  Without a doubt, a well-defined eye will emerge 
tomorrow.
At 03Z on 9/11, the center of Hurricane Floyd was located at 21.1N 60.8W and moving NW at 
12mph.  The max sustained winds are up to 90mph and the MSLP has fallen to 971mb.  The 
pressure 24 hours ago was 995mb and the winds were 60mph, just for comparison.  The NW 
track may continue for a while longer, then a more WNW or even W motion is anticipated.  
This puts the east coast at great risk from this potentially major hurricane.  This storm, 
in my opinion, could reach CAT5 status.  If not, it is quite certain that Floyd will at 
least become a major hurricane (CAT3).
As far as landfall goes, anywhere from Daytona Beach,FL to Nova Scotia could be candidates.  
But, for persistance, I will make a first attempted landfall forecast at Wilmington, NC 
on Thursday (9/16) afternoon.  Stay tuned for updates, as this storm could be a very 
challenging one to forecast and changes are likely.  It could recurve just before reaching 
the US coast... it will be close.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF


OTHER:
Three un-named systems are lurking in the Atlantic.  Could these be Gert, Harvey, and Irene?

1) 12N 20W (just SSE of the Cape Verde Islands).  This disturbance is by far the most 
promising of the three.  It is over 27C waters and in 10 m/s vertical shear.  There is an 
impressive circulation and moderate convection associated with this system.  It could 
easily be TD9 tomorrow.

2) 20N 35W (between the Cape Verde and Leeward Islands).  A large collection of 
thunderstorms embedded in a poorly-defined circulation.  This system is over 27.5C waters, 
but is being shredded by 35 m/s vertical wind shear.  Conditions should be improving and 
this could allow for intensification.

3) 33N 43W (between Bermuda and the Azores).  This system is very small, and would fit in 
the "midget" category of tropical cyclones.  The circulation is less than 200 miles in 
diameter.  It is in an environment with 28C waters and 11 m/s vertical shear.  Though very 
little threat to anyone, these storms are very peculiar and need to be better understood.


Brian

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Brian D. McNoldy
Colorado State University
Dept. of Atmospheric Science
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371
Phone: (970) 491-8398
Fax: (970) 491-8449
E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu
URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Don't drink and derive."