Anyone getting flashbacks of 1992?

Floyd intensifying, almost a hurricane.

FLOYD:
Apparently, that convective blowup I noticed near the center of rotation last night was 
the beginning of an organizational period.  All day today, Floyd has looked very 
impressive both in VIS and IR.  Continued deep convection is occurring over the center of 
rotation.
At 21Z on 9/9 (not just 9/9, 9/9/99 !), TS Floyd was located at 18.2N 56.9W and moving WNW 
at 14mph.  Maximum sustained winds are up to 70mph and the MSLP is now 996mb.  I expect 
the NHC to upgrade him to a hurricane at the 03Z advisory in 6 hours.
The storm is in an environment with less than 5 m/s vertical shear and 29.1C SST's.  Floyd 
could intensify very rapidly in these ideal conditions, so CAT3 is not out of the question by Sunday morning.  In fact, CAT5 is not out of the question at some point.
I might back off my forecast from yesterday regarding likely recurvature.  The current 
(and forecast) track look remarkably similar to that of Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  Andrew 
was moving WNW where Floyd is now, and when he reached 65W, he tracked due west until 
making landfall in southern Florida.  The biggest difference between the two storms is 
that Floyd is much better organized and more powerful than Andrew was at the same point 
in the track.  I think I might wait until tomorrow to make my final call of landfall or 
recurvature, but landfall looks more likely now than it did yesterday at this time.  
Anyone on the east coast of the US should be aware that Floyd could potentially threaten 
them in about 1 week.


OTHER:
The disturbance (pre-Gert?) near the Cape Verde Islands still looks promising.  It's 
located at about 18N 30W.  Convection has increased, but vertical shear is tremendous 
(>25 m/s).  This high shear is why the system hasn't developed at all yet.  It is sitting 
over 27.1C water and this should remain constant for a while.

Brian

For anyone interested... I put a collection of satellite loops on my webpage.  The loops 
are visible imagery from GOES over Hurricane Bret 2.5 weeks ago.  You can check them out 
at http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/javabret.html .  Any feedback is greatly appreciated!


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Brian D. McNoldy
Colorado State University
Dept. of Atmospheric Science
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371
Phone: (970) 491-8398
Fax: (970) 491-8449
E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu
URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Don't drink and derive."