Floyd intensifies... TD9 in the works.


FLOYD:
As expected, TD8 was named today.  At 09Z this morning, TD8 became TS Floyd.  Progress 
hasn't been incredible, but it's been substantial.  The system has a large circulation, 
impressive outflow,  and is apparently in the process of organizing its convection.  
Throughout the day, the deep convection associated with Floyd has been, well, not very 
centrally located.  Recent (9/9 02Z) IR imagery reveals a convective blowup near the 
center of rotation, so maybe this will help focus the energy.
As 03Z on 9/9, Floyd was located at 16.7N 53.6W and had sustained winds of 60mph and a 
MSLP of 1000mb.  The storm is tracking WNW at 16mph.  This WNW motion is expected to 
continue, but eventually make a more northerly turn.  It seems likely that Floyd will 
recurve at about 65-70W (I think).  US landfall does not seem like the most likely 
scenario at this point.  But the track will not go unmonitored, so if something should 
change, you'll hear about it!
Current SST's are 29C and its in an environment with about 6 m/s SE vertical shear.  
These conditions are perfect for further intensification, and I'd say Floyd will reach 
CAT3 status by the end of the weekend (when he'll be north of the Dominican Republic?).


OTHER:
An impressive disturbance is located over the Cape Verde Islands.  It is in 10 m/s 
vertical shear and is over 27.5C water.  Most likely, this will become TD9 and eventually 
Gert.

Brian

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Brian D. McNoldy
Colorado State University
Dept. of Atmospheric Science
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1371
Phone: (970) 491-8398
Fax: (970) 491-8449
E-mail: mcnoldy@CIRA.colostate.edu
URL: http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Don't drink and derive."