5/21/02

In a normal year out here, we would not be overly excited about the rest
of the week's outlook.  However, in light of the fact that there has been
an inordinate lack of storms to chase, we are more than a little psyched
about what the rest of the week may bring.  

There are certain ingredients we hope to find coming together to form the
magnificent supercells we love to study.  Some of these ingredients will
be in place tomorrow, some will not.  We'll take it.  We've been
forecasting on and off since late afternoon, checking the models as they
are updated.  Nancy got some great lessons from Brian in the
interpretation of the computer models and in severe weather forecasting.  

If we had to make a call right this moment, we would probably head to
north central Kansas (Salina/Concordia area).  This was based on
determining a location central to the strongest indices available 18 to 24
hours out.  This would put us in an area dead center of the projected best
combination of CAPE, helicity, etc. Bear in mind that the highest CAPE,
acceptable cap, strongest helicity, and most encouraging SWEAT index are
not in the same spot, and basically away from the projected Low, but we
feel this is the best place to be.  Not the ideal place, because there
really isn't one.  Right about now, if we see a cloud, we're chasing it.
We'll be checking models and SPC's outlook again Wednesday morning to get
a firm grasp on where we need to be.

Anxious in Topeka,
Nancy, Brian, Josh, Lisa, and Mark
www.mcwar.org