MESO Newsletter -- September 2000 Hello from MESO. We had an active month this month with Brian's Tropical updates and the activity in the Atlantic and the Caribbean. John Griswold and Geoff Mackley saw some action. Grizz chased Hurricane Gordon and Geoff went in pursuit of first Hurricane Joyce, then Hurricane Keith. I know the both got wet, but I'll bet Geoff got wetter. Keith dropped about 3.5 feet of rain in Belize, where I believe Geoff ended up. I wouldn't be surprised if Geoff was waiting for Keith at his next landfall....probably Mexico. Grizz reported on 9/17: Greetings all. IM stopped in Longboat key. The winds are about 30 to 35 gusting to 50. The beach that I spent all last week on is totally gone. The surf is about 2 to 3 feet higher than normal and the storm surge is pushing up over the barrier wall. High tide will not be here till about 6pm so there will be some coastal flooding on the island. Next stop Brooksville: Well, IM finally ahead of Gordon. I ran into some strong rain bands on the way here. Parts of Interstate 75 were under a foot or more of water. Conditions here are calm, light east wind about 10 kts. It is still low tide here and the waters are calm for the most part. Waves are about 1 to 2 feet. People are starting to prepare for the landfall of Gordon. As you all probably know Landfall will be between Brooksville and Cedar Key, FL. The normal precautions here are a few sand bags and coastal residents have the boards for there winds out. The mood here is mostly wait and see. The storm looks to be weakening from the dry air coming in from the West and south of the storm. Locals are not too worried about wind damage but the local heavy flooding. Manatee county (south of Tampa) is currently more worried about the clashing of Gordon and this Dry air mass causing slow moving severe storms causing more local flooding. I will probably wait the landfall out here in Brooksville unless they make a change in the track further north of Cedar Key. Geoff was a little more difficult to keep tabs on, as many of the places he goes not only don't have cell phone coverage, but regular phones are a scarcity...as well as indoor plumbing. However, Geoff's reports from the field are as follows: Message 1: 9/22 Gidday, I am off to the US on Sunday LA, then on to Miami where I will sit until a major one occurs, hopefully Isaac... and about 5 others. The website is overhauled, about 80 new photos, it is still www.rambocam.com, with of course www.hurricanelive.com being operative for the chase. www.rambocam.com/bilis.html is the report on Supertyphoon Bilis. I will be e-mailing all interested people with updates to the hurricane site during a storm. Geoff. Message 2: 9/28 hi, Nancy, I might have to get you or Brian to help with hurricane updates, comms are nearly impossible for me, Geoff. Message 3: 9/30 1730 hours Hello all, to those who need to know, Emma, Jonathan from Pioneer, Bill Steigerwald, Keith could be the one!! Chris, Chuck, let the CNN guys know what I am doing, I don't know if phone works there?? It's on the www.hurricanelive.com site... an attempt to get to Yucatan Pen in the morning. And yes Brian I had given up on Joyce, any storm with such a sissy name wouldn't amount to much!!!!!!!! PS Mum and Dad, this is not as dangerous as it sounds.... Sorry, gotta go and get a couple hrs of zzzz. Geoff. Message 4: 9/30 2330 hours It is time now for a couple of hours sleep before flying out of Miami to Cancun, on the Yucatan Peninsula at 0700 hrs (local) 1st Sept. I suspect that this will be the last flight into Cancun until after Keith. The plan is to rent a four wheel drive, hopefully, and drive south along the coast road, Highway 307, to meet Keith, a CAT 3 hurricane currently packing winds of 115 mph, gusting to 140mph (180 to 210kmh) and intensifying. Hurricane warnings are being posted all along the coast from Belize City north. This is in a similar area to Hurricane Mitch which in October 1998, causing more than 10,000 deaths. Many of these areas still have not recovered from Mitch. This will be a deadly storm. Message 5: 10/1 I am off to the airport for the 0745 flight to Cancun...if it is not canceled. Keith is getting even stronger..winds 130 to 160 mph!!!!! There may be a period of time during which I am not able to be contacted, this is to be expected with an event like this. Geoff. And that's the last we heard from Geoff. No doubt he's holed up in some little village in Mexico waiting to meet Keith again, peering into his English/Spanish dictionary trying to find the Spanish word for yogurt. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Road Master Steve Chambers has been using his time to test out some of the navigation systems we use when chasing. Steve writes: September proved to be a time to give a real test to the GPS system. Southwest Ohio had many heavy storms that enabled me to give the system a better "feel" in adverse conditions. My conclusion was a little surprising... Even though GPS is a tremendous tool, the mapping software is often times outdated and needs to be updated before going on a chase. Looking at copyright dates on mapping software for GPS should always be done before using it in a chase to check the potential accuracy of the maps. In an area of test, I found the maps to be unacceptable due to use in a heavy development area. Streets were not always accurate, some throughways were blocked due to construction and overall could present a potential danger if chasing in those particular areas. My conclusion is to couple the GPS with conventional maps, Industrial maps in highly populated areas and checking in with local construction information before chasing a populated area. Although most chasing is done away from these areas, it is not always possible to predict where a chaser needs to be..... Steve also wrote: I thought I might send an update on the F4 that hit Xenia Ohio last week. It's interesting to note that a National Review Board of the NWS arrived in Xenia yesterday to review the local NWS offices' performance. As you recall, the NWS had only predicted a severe Thunderstorm. With no warning, an F4 dropped down on Xenia and in a matter of less than a minute caused an incredible amount of damage. After review, the National Review board deemed the call was a good one and there were absolutely no indications of tornadic structure within the storm. This goes to show that radar has some weak points and should not be used as a finite decision tool. It also shows that radar must be coupled with all indicators and the ultimate tool is knowledge and that gut feeling that happens when you chase long enough. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ President Brian McNoldy has been burning the midnight oil with his tropical updates. Brian has also been busy as an online tutor with the One Sky, Many Voices program out of the University of Michigan. As most of you know, MESO is very active in public awareness and community safety. Though we speak to and assist all sorts of groups, we key on the kids. The Mission Statement of One Sky, Many Voices "is to create innovative, inquiry-based K-12 weather curricula that utilize current technologies such as CD-ROMs and the World Wide Web for the interactive study of current weather and air quality. Students, teachers, parents and scientists can participate from classrooms, homes, after-school programs or other educational settings. Brian's report on our web site stats were surprising: Despite the lack of severe weather lately, MCWAR.ORG has still been doing well in terms of traffic. In the month of September, we had: - 2146 visitors from 28 different nations - 268.5Mb of data downloaded from our site - 66 people download our chasing and severe weather safety guides - the Tropical Gallery with the most traffic, followed by the Chase 2K page with half as many visitors as the Tropical page - referrals from other websites like discover.com, allandetrich.com, tornadochasing.com, weatherwatchers.org, wildweather.com, hurricanelive.com, and silverlining.com - our SEVENTH month as Discover.com's Environment Pick of the Web. In March, we were their all-around Pick of the Web, but since then we've gotten A LOT of traffic from their site as the Environment Pick of the Web! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Also active in public awareness and education is member Jason Breakiron. Jason recently landed a job as a school bus driver, and is compiling all sorts of literature and brochures from FEMA to pass out to the kids on his bus and in the school system. Good job, Jason! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Educational outreach is a particular "darling" of mine, and not without good reason. As I recently posted to the Severe-Wx Newsgroup in response to a query about women in chasing, I wrote: When I was little, my family was in what was later (years later) classified as an F4 tornado. (Tornado Project online, May 12, 1956, Wayne County, MI). It hit at night, and I was rousted from my bed and rushed to the cellar. Baseball-sized hail broke all our casement windows, the wind was deafening. Our house was spared, but the damage to the community was ungodly. The effect such an event has on a child is devastating. It makes, from a child's perspective, liars out of your parents who said "There's nothing in the night that can hurt you and you're safe and sound in your little bed" and you know for a fact that monsters DO exist in the dark. I became a nervous, fretful child...ever vigilant against storms. I felt that if I wasn't watchful, "it" would come again. I made myself the watchdog of the world, eyes ever aloft, waiting. Never mind being afraid of thunder and lightning. I would break into cold sweats at RAIN. Clouds were a matter of concern as well. Counseling didn't work. Therapists threw up their hands. My Dad, though, took matters into his OWN hands and proceeded over my childhood years to teach me everything he possibly could about storms, tornadoes, severe weather. Somewhere along the line, fear turned to fascination. I joke with my chase buddies that I "Stockholmed" with the storms. Becoming a chaser was easy. It just took a few years for me to learn to do a 180 degree turn from the darned things. I'll never forget my first post-trauma tornado. It was in Kansas. I looked at this big ol' rain shrouded twister with my shoulders squared, and whispered, "remember me?" What a glorious feeling. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ John Bender reports that he's been road testing McWar, our mobile lab. For those of you not yet familiar with our "baby," go to www.mcwar.org and click on the GALLERY button. McWar is one of the subcategories there. John reports that: McWar had a trial workout with the radar last night, showed precip very well, Don and I tried it out on approaching storms... tired today, was up all night tracking the stuff that went all around us. Radar showed a TVS just a few miles north, but was gone by the time truck was ready to roll. McWar is proving to be as valuable as a public relations tool as she is a mobile weather station. She has been on display numerous times and places, and usually after she makes an appearance, SKYWARN membership escalates. This is important to us for a number of reasons; first, McWar shows just how much data there is available to gather on weather systems, and second, people are shown a good example that there is more to spotting than being able to measure the width of a hail stone. Most people leave McWar with a desire to learn more than a desire to chase. That in itself is a victory. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Allan Detrich, our Media Director, is in Canada at the moment. He's been splitting his time between work, MESO, and family and is doing some great PR and legal work for us all. Allan was at Niagara Falls today on a story, on the Canadian side, and I could shoot myself for not taking the drive up to see him. Before I was a chaser, 6 hours seemed like a long trip. Now, it seems like nothing. I guess its all relative. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Chris Howell's September weather roundup is as insightful as ever: The month of September started out with record heat across the southern plains and into portions of Texas, with all time record highs being reported as far south as San Antonio. Tropical storm Gordon made landfall on Florida's west coast on the 17th, just hours before it was downgraded from a category one hurricane that had sustained winds of 75 mph...some minor wind damage was reported as well as a few tornadoes into north central portions of the state. A few days later tropical storm Helene took nearly the same path as Gordon... spreading flooding rains from north Florida, Georgia, and into the Carolinas. On the 20th, a spring like system with its associated 120-130 knot jet stream spread eastward from the upper plains states setting its eyes on Indiana and Ohio. Several reports of wind damage from thunderstorms were reported over Indiana, and once again the town of Xenia, Ohio was hit by a damaging tornado. Rated an F-4 on the Fujita intensity scale, this short 40 second tornado ripped apart homes, killing one person and injuring 115 others. On April 3, 1974, an F-5 ripped apart the small town. The high school took a direct hit by the tornado, reducing it to shreds. If the tornado would have hit 75 minutes prior, 600 students would have been killed. Old man winter made its return to the mountain ranges of Wyoming, Colorado, and Montana, dropping as much as a foot and a half of snow. Officials were prompted to close some of the passes, and required chains to be used in some of the highest elevations. On the 28th, eyes were watching hurricane Joyce which was then located 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands with sustained winds of 85. She was moving to the West south west at 14 knots, but has since dissipated and all advisories have been canceled. Editors note: Chris' report was completed and submitted on the 28th of September. To wrap up the September weather summary and to edge into October a little, as the newsletter is going out a little late, I'll add a 10/4 excerpt from Brian's Tropical Weather update: "At 18Z today (10/4), Keith was upgraded to a TS again. Ever since leaving the Yucatan early this morning, convection has been persistent and extraordinarily deep. He has not made the northward turn that the NHC and all forecast models were predicting; he's still heading WNW across the Bay of Campeche toward Tampico. Landfall is expected to be near Tampico on Thursday night. The recent explosion of convection near the center is of such a magnitude that we may only see such an event a couple of times each year in the Atlantic... cloud tops were being sustained at -90C (-130F), much colder than the coldest cloud tops in mid-latitude supercells. At 21Z, Keith was located at 20.5N 94W and tracking WNW at 6kts. Winds are up to 50kts with a MSLP of 995mb. Further strengthening is expected as he moves over the very warm waters of the southern Gulf. Intensity at landfall could possibly reach weak CAT2, but most likely a medium to strong CAT1." ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I am feeling Supercell Deprivation Syndrome to a depth not previously thought possible. I will share with you things I do to pass the time till spring. 1. Take a meteorological concept or chart or model or something that you really don't understand. Attack it with a vengeance. Set a deadline of one month to learn it. Then write a paper on it. 2. Give a talk at a school. C'mon, you can do it. Start with 1st grade and work your way up. Before speaking at High Schools, research the dangers of body piercings in severe lightning conditions. This is important to this audience, because the way they wear their pants, they won't be able to run for shelter. 3. Clean and check all your gear, and get it ready for next year. This means remove all the Doritos and Ring Dings from your camera case, take the empty coffee cups from the back seat, and wipe the pork rind grease from the screen of your laptop. 4. Make a list of stuff you're NOT going to bring chasing. This is more of a challenge for me than a list of thing I am going to bring....as anyone who's ever chased with me will tell you. 5. Spend quality time with your family, so they will be more forgiving when you do your thing in the spring. Going to see "Perfect Storm" or watching "Raging Planet" doesn't count. It should, but it doesn't. 6. Get a mind set that this isn't the end of the 2000 storm season...its the beginning of the 2001 storm season. 7. Go to the gym so you don't look like such a loser in those shorts when the 95 degree heat makes you wish you had gone to the gym last winter. 8. At Thanksgiving, remember to thank God for family, health, happiness, and freedom BEFORE you thank Him for that LP Supercell you caught in the panhandle last spring. 9. A Christmas tree is a Christmas tree... not an upside down funnel cloud. Remember this. 10. In case of emergency, bath tub drain vortices become more distinct when you add green food color to the water and toss in some debris. It is considered in poor taste to drop the little houses from the Monopoly game into them. 11. Stay safe, be well and WRITE us. Nancy K. Bose, MESO Secretary http://www.mcwar.org/ http://hometown.aol.com/mesomomma/Index.html